China LNG Weekly Brief: May 20, 2025

China’s LNG market remains subdued: prices are stable, imports are weak, and demand recovery uneven. Domestic production is strong, while weather signals a gradual cooling shift.

China LNG Weekly Briefing

China’s LNG market is entering late May with a tone of cautious stability. Prices have settled into a narrow range, import volumes remain historically weak, and weather-driven demand is unfolding unevenly across regions. While there are signs of seasonal transition—such as rising temperatures and moderate gains in cooling degree days—these have yet to translate into a decisive uptick in gas consumption. Structurally, domestic production continues to expand year-on-year, reducing short-term pressure on international procurement.

Meanwhile, the recent U.S.–China tariff truce has sparked optimism in broader trade sentiment, but its impact on energy flows remains negligible. The overall picture is one of inertia: market fundamentals are not deteriorating, but they lack the strength to drive a clear rebound.

Looking ahead, the key inflection points will come from the pace of power-sector demand and whether external triggers—economic, climatic, or geopolitical—are sufficient to break the current impasse.

---

LNG Prices Enter Holding Pattern After Spring Recovery

China’s domestic LNG market price held steady in the latest reading, registering a marginal weekly dip from $12.71 to $12.69/MMBtu. This marks the second consecutive week of lateral movement, confirming that prices have entered a consolidation phase following the rebound seen in March. On a year-over-year basis, current levels sit about 3.5% higher than May 2024, yet remain far below the peaks reached in late 2024, suggesting the recent recovery has lost steam.