U.S. Natural Gas: Supply & Demand Weekly Briefing July 9, 2025

Production hit a new high while inventories rose further above average. Demand edged up, but weak power burn and slower vessel loadings highlight growing constraints in storage and logistics.

U.S. natural gas supply remained structurally firm, supported by high production levels, steady injection activity, and resilient export flows. However, logistical friction is intensifying, vessel departures slowed despite strong terminal operations, and storage utilization in western and southern hubs is nearing saturation. With production forecast to hold near current levels, the system’s short-term balance will depend increasingly on infrastructure flexibility and regional capacity shifts.

On the demand side, rising temperatures sustained moderate gains in industrial and power sector consumption, even as residential and commercial use continued their seasonal retreat. Yet the response from gas-fired generation has remained restrained, reflecting growing displacement by renewables.

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Storage Build Slows but Surplus Persists

As of June 27, U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 2,953 Bcf, reflecting a net injection of 55 Bcf from the previous week’s level of 2,898 Bcf. Although below the five-year average injection of 61 Bcf, this addition sustained the inventory surplus, which now measures 173 Bcf above the seasonal norm. The modest build, despite last week's heatwave, suggests that robust renewable generation and subdued gas-to-power conversions tempered the impact of elevated cooling demand.

Looking ahead, inventories are projected to reach 3,016 Bcf by July 4 and 3,066 Bcf by July 11, maintaining the seasonal accumulation trajectory. These forward estimates point to a continuation of the oversupplied environment, with infrastructure still able to absorb excess production. Unless upcoming injections materially underperform expectations, the system is poised to carry a significant surplus into the latter half of summer.